By The Numbers — Teen Birth Rate Collapse
US Birth Rate Among Teenagers Hits Historic Low in 2025—What's Actually Driving the Decline?
Teen birth rates are framed as a 'success story,' but we should ask: success for whom? Is this about genuine reproductive autonomy, or economic desperation making parenthood unaffordable?
The CDC reports another year of historically low teen birth rates, continuing a trend that defies conventional wisdom about youth behavior.
ENTRIES011
SOURCES009
MARKETS002
POLLS005
Declining Fertility rates
Its the economy
004
Estimated share of post-2008 teen birth drop directly caused by rising unemployment
50%
005
Estimated share of working-class women who delayed pregnancy specifically due to the 2008 recession
45%
Fewer Births
006
Annual decline in teen birth rate before 2008 recession (1991 - 1998)
2.5%
007
Annual decline in teen birth rate from 2008 - 2012
7.5%
Cost of childcare
008
Estimated share of childcare costs of a single parent's income today
Source: Child Care Aware of America
35%
009
What the U.S. government says families should spend on childcare
7%
minimum wage isn't keep up
010
1992 minimum wage adjusted for inflation (Feb, 2026 baseline)
$10.06per hour
Readers & Markets
What happens next, in numbers.
2 open markets tied to this story, with $447 in volume on the line — and 5 polls measuring where opinion sits. Prices and vote shares update in real time.
Open Markets
02 contracts
Will a human step on Mars before the USA's federal minimum wage is $15.00 or higher?
Source: Manifold
Yes45¢
No55¢
Reader Polls
05 surveys
Support Legislation Protecting Access to Contraception, Including Condoms, IUDs, Birth Control Pills, and Emergency Contraception Pills
Source: Global Strategy Group
Support
81%
Oppose
11%
Is the United States Doing Too Little to Help Families With the Health and Financial Challenges of Starting a Family?
Source: Navigator Research
Too Little
56%
Enough
24%
Is It Difficult to Afford Child Care?
Source: Morning Consult
Difficult
43%
Easy
34%
What Type of Impact Do You Think It Would Have on Our Country If Fewer People Chose to Have Children in the Future?
Source: Pew Research Center
Somewhat Negative
29%
Neither Positive nor Negative
26%
Very Negative
24%
Somewhat Positive
16%
Very Positive
4%
A Large Majority of Adults Feel the Cost of Child Care Is a Major Problem in the United States. Should Encouraging Families to Have More Children Be a High Priority for Washington?
Source: AP-NORC
Low Priority
62%
Moderate Priority
26%
High Priority
12%
Originating headlines: NPR.