By The Numbers — Strait of Hormuz + commodities

Angle 1: The anecdotal disguises the systemic. One ice cream brand isn't a story; the *mechanism* by which energy shocks become regressive taxes on consumption is. Use this mundane example to expose how the poorest 50% bear outsized inflation burden. Angle 2: Energy shocks aren't neutral; they're redistribution mechanisms. Concentrated industries (food processing, manufacturing) profit from farmers' inability to pass costs. Monopoly power determines who bears inflation. This is invisible in aggregate CPI data but visible in sector-level margins. Angle 3: The lag between policy action and observed inflation creates an information problem. The Fed tightened aggressively in 2022-23 to fight inflation that was partly mechanical (lagged oil pass-through), not demand-driven. They may be over-tightened relative to the real demand-driven inflation problem. Use timing data to expose this.